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Is Donald Trump going to prison?

Donald Trump was arrested and arraigned on Tuesday 13 June for the second time in less than three months.

At 3pm local time, Mr Trump surrendered to authorities at the Wilkie D Ferguson Jr United States Courthouse in Miami, Florida on 37 federal charges stemming from his alleged unlawful retention of national defence information, adding another criminal case to the legal pressure against the twice-impeached former president as he seeks to win his party’s nomination in next year’s Republican presidential primary.

The arraignment comes just days after a federal grand jury indicted the former president.

Mr Trump first revealed the indictment in a series of posts on his Truth Social platform on 8 June – just one day after The Independent reported that federal prosecutors had planned to ask a grand jury to return an indictment against him.

They include: willful retention of national defence information, conspiracy to obstruct justice, withholding a document or record, corruptly concealing a document or record, concealing a document in a federal investigation, scheme to conceal, and false statements and representations.

Each charge carries a maximum sentence ranging from five years to 20 years. A potential sentence, if convicted, could include decades in prison.

Just before the arraignment hearing, deputy marshals booked Mr Trump and took electronic copies of his fingerprints.

In the speech, where he lashed out at President Joe Biden and Special Counsel Jack Smith, Mr Trump claimed that the boxes of classified documents discovered in his possession actually contained clothes.

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“Many people have asked me why I had these boxes, why did you want them?” he said.

“The answer, in addition to having every right under the Presidential Records Act, is that these boxes were containing all types of personal belongings — many, many things, shirts and shoes, everything.”

The latest charges come just days after a last-ditch attempt by Mr Trump’s legal team to convince Department of Justice officials not to seek charges against him in the classified documents probe, which began early last year after National Archives and Records Administration (NARA) officials discovered more than 100 classified documents in boxes that were retrieved from Mr Trump’s Palm Beach, Florida residence.

That discovery led NARA officials to notify the Department of Justice, which kicked off an investigation into how the documents ended up at Mr Trump’s property.

Following his indictment, Mr Trump declared that he was “an innocent man”.

“This is election interference and continuation of the greatest witch hunt of all time,” he ranted.

“The corrupt Biden Administration has informed my attorneys that I have been Indicted, seemingly over the Boxes Hoax,” he wrote, using the phrase he has frequently used to describe the long-running probe.

Proceedings followed similarly to what happened in early April when Mr Trump appeared in Manhattan court to face criminal charges following Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s investigation into hush payments leading up to the 2016 presidential election.

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They did not take a mugshot of the former president since he is recognisable nor did they place him in handcuffs.

Throughout the investigation, prosecutors and investigators harboured concerns that the ex-president was not being truthful about whether he had returned any and all classified documents in his possession to government custody as required under the Presidential Records Act.

But the classified nature of the records at issue added another wrinkle to the dispute between Mr Trump and the government he led from January 2017 to January 2021.

At times, the ex-president has claimed that he had used the sweeping classification and declassification authority to declassify any record he took with him to his Palm Beach home at Mar-a-Lago.

No evidence has emerged that any such order was ever issued, and in audio recordings obtained by prosecutors, Mr Trump is said to have acknowledged that he did not declassify certain records that were in his possession long after his authority to possess them expired.

The Department of Justice is likely to attempt to have Mr Trump incarcerated if he’s convicted.

National security lawyer and George Washington University law professor Kel McClanahan said that the department will probably “want to go for incarceration” in the case of Mr Trump, according to Insider.

Mr McClanahan said that the evidence in the indictment is intended to show that Mr Trump “is a kingpin who knowingly broke the law, endangered national security, endangered nuclear weapon security, [and] endangered other countries’ national security”.

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The consensus among most legal experts commenting on the indictment appears to be that Mr Trump is in serious legal jeopardy.

A former assistant US attorney in the Southern District of New York, Sarah Krissoff, said that “to the extent that there’s a conviction here, the Department of Justice is going to want to be seeking a real sentence” because of the “nature of the conduct, how long it lasted, his involvement, the involvement of other people, working allegedly at Trump’s direction”.

She noted that if Mr Trump is convicted, the sentence would depend on the judge, which seems likely to be Trump-appointee Aileen Cannon in the District Court for the Southern District of Florida.

Mr McClanahan noted the novelty of possibly having to find a proper way to put a former president behind bars.

He questioned how the authorities would go about imprisoning someone “who has a Secret Service detail and who has national security secrets bouncing around his brain, such that if someone holds a shiv to his neck, he’ll reveal the location of our missile bases”.

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