- Beverly Ochieng & Nader Ibrahim
- Role, BBC Monitoring/ BBC World Service
On one ogbonge Saturday, Wagner private army send units enta Moscow for rebellion against di Russia military leadership before dem gree for deal and di units go back.
According to di last minute deal, Wagner famous oga, Yevgeny Prigozhin go dey exiled to Belarus and im fighters wey no join Saturday mutiny go fit sign contracts wit di Russian Ministry of Defence.
For post inside im Telegram channel afta dem gree to di deal, Prigozhin tok say “dem” wey fit mean di Russian Ministry of Defence wan “disband” Wagner. But e no clear weda dat na di only reason for im sudden show of force.
E tok am again for audio message wey im post on Monday evening wey be di first time im tok since Saturday, say no one gree to sign contract wit di defence ministry and im mercenary company dey bound to end by 1 July.
E neva clear wetin go happun to Wagner fighters wey dey currently stationed abroad if di Wagner Group dey disbanded.
Di group dey active for plenti kontris round di world like Libya, Sudan, Syria, Mali, Central African Republic, Mozambique, Venezuela, Burkina Faso and Madagascar.
Dem don accuse Wagner fighters of committing atrocities for Libya, Syria, di CAR, Mali and Ukraine, many of di atrocities dem dey accused of na against unarmed civilians.
One UN diplomatic source wey don dey follow Wagner bumper to bumper for years tell BBC say if di group fight wit Russian goment and dey disbanded, dia units for Africa no go dey resupplied by Russian MoD.
Di source say dem fit no dey pay fighters again, and dem no go get political or military support, especially for African kontris like di CAR, Libya, Sudan and Mali.
Dis mean say di Wagner fighters wey dey deployed for Africa no go get work and go dey free to employ pipo wey dey dangerous for kontris wey dey face instabilty, civil wars and insurgencies.
Civillians plenti times na di victims of political power fights. And for kontris dem wia Wagner de currently operate internationally, dem go dey hope say dis kasala no go cause more brutality from di infamous Wagner group.
So wetin Wagner dey do for Africa and Syria? And wetin go happun for di kontris if dem dey disbanded and lose di support of di Russian Ministry of Defence?
Wagner units in Libya bin first appear for late 2019 wen dem join di army of di oga of di forces for Easter Libya Khalifa Haftar for im offensive to gbab di capital Tripoli wia di UN recognized goment bin dey stay.
Dem bin dey used as specialized fighting force to break di kontri defences afta dem bin block Hafta offensive.
Dia work for front line fighting, sniping and military intelligence gathering make difference on ground, and wit dia help Hafta forces move enta some Tripoli southern parts.
But dark side dey dia involvement too.
For 2021, BBC investigate and find evidence wey implicate some members of di group for di killing of civilians and di unlawful use of anti-personnel mines and booby traps for family houses for di Libyan capital Tripoli.
Di investigation bin also show how dem bin dey supplied wit weapons and equipment.
Secret internal documents wey di BBC collect for Tripoli show dia resupply acquisition list – show di list give Chis Cobb Smith wey be British military sabi pesin wey don work wit UN and dis na di assessment e make:
“Di weapons dey for di most part na ‘state of di art’, dat is to say dem dey up to date, technologically advanced and equiment wey di Russian military dey use.
Dis no only mean say dem get beta budget but also get authority to fit collect di latest sensitive and secret technology. E be like Wagner na little more dan unofficial element of di Russian military.”
Tori also full ground say Wagner units for Libya dey get dia resupplies from di Russian Air DForce Antanoc aircraft wey dey normally fly between Russian controlled Latakia base for Syria and airbases for di east of Libya.
So clearly Wagner units for Libya dey rely well-well from support from di Russian Ministry of Defence, so to lose dat support go get major impact for dia presence and power for Libya.
Local sources for Libya don tell BBC say dem neva see noticeable change for ground around wia Wagner units dey stay since Saturday failed coup for Russia.
MALI AND CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC
Russia Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov don give assurance say operations by military instructors go kontinu for Mali and di Central African Republic even afta Satuday coup attempt show how important di two kontris be to di Kremlin plan to expand for Africa.
For di short term, Prigozhin rebellion fit no get impact like dat on di 1,000 Wagner mercenaries wey don dey operate for Mali since late 2021 as di military junta bin invite dem.
Di work dey linked wit Russia growing diplomatic, security and economic interest for di kontri since di for now presido Col Assimi Goita seize power for August 2020.
Malian authorities don regularly deny say dem contract di Wagner group but dey hail di support from Russian military instructors.
Las-las Wagner presence make thousands of French and European forces wey don dey support di Malian army to fight against militants from di Islamic State and al-Qaeda groups since 2013, to quick comot.
Wagner deployment no really do much to improve di security situation.
Numbers from di Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (Acled Info) show say di militant violnence bin pass double between 2021 and 2022wia civilians na dem dey kill pass.