I still vividly remember the events of the April 22, 1990 military coup in Nigeria. On that morning, I left my house in Ojodu, Lagos, to attend a church service in Ikeja, unaware of the historic operation unfolding in the country. My decision to visit a cousin in Ikeja first led me to a gathering of his neighbors who were listening attentively to the voice of Gideon Orkar, who was addressing the nation “on behalf of the Nigerian armed forces.”
After listening to Orkar’s broadcast, I concluded that the plan to overthrow General Ibrahim Babangida’s administration would not succeed. There was something absurd about attempting to dismember Nigeria through a coup announcement. This attempt lacked critical elements that successful coups in the 1980s, such as those led by Generals Sani Abacha and Joshua Dogonyaro, had.
Orkar and his group had hoped that Nigerians would take to the streets to celebrate their supposed liberation. However, their projections and objectives fell flat and failed to resonate with the general population. That coup, in addition to its tactical deficiencies, did not gain popular support. It also marked the last time the military openly attempted to seize political power from civilians in Nigeria.
Since then, some other African countries have reminded the world that the act of seizing government seats by force may not disappear anytime soon. Africa has long held the unenviable position of having the highest number of coups in the world.
According to a report published by American researchers Jonathan Powell and Clayton Thyne last month, of the 486 coup attempts recorded globally from 1950 to 2022, Africa alone accounts for 214, with 106 being successful. Latin America is the closest rival with 146 attempts and 70 successes. Out of the 54 African nations, 45 have witnessed at least one seizure of political power.
This profile is disconcerting, but when we examine the continent’s coups over the last four years, it becomes even more concerning. Sudan’s President Omar al-Bashir was ousted in 2019 by the armed forces under Ahmed Ibn Auf, following sustained mass protests. Two years later, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan removed Auf from power. Sudan now grapples with hostilities between government forces and paramilitary rebels as it struggles to transition to civilian rule.
In 2020, President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita of Mali was removed from office. The following year, another coup occurred in Mali, with Col. Assimi Goita still in control. Chad experienced a coup in April 2021 when President Idriss Deby, who had held power for 31 years, was killed while visiting troops battling rebels in the country’s north. His son, Gen. Mahamat Idriss Deby, succeeded him immediately.
Tunisia witnessed a self-coup in 2021 when President Kais Saied used violent unrest to remove the government. Burkina Faso experienced a coup in January 2022 when Lt. Col. Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba ousted President Roch Marc Christian Kabore. However, Damiba was later removed in September by Capt. Ibrahim Traore for failing to address the ongoing challenge of Islamist insurgency.
Currently, the coup leaders in Burkina Faso and Mali are strong supporters of the new junta in Niger, which overthrew President Mohamed Bazoum in July this year. Gabon, a country long overdue for a leadership change, has now joined the ranks. President Ali Bongo, who had ruled since 2009, was denied the opportunity to enjoy another rigged term in office.
The sight of a visibly ailing president recording a video message under house arrest, appealing to his supporters, is pitiable. The delusion of absolute and unending power must run deep. The resurgent coups in Africa should intrigue, if not worry, observers of power succession, especially at the national level.
Former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo, who was also a military head of state in the 1970s, expressed his concerns recently in an interview. He recalled observing the aftermath of President Alpha Conde’s overthrow in Guinea Conakry in 2021. The coup leaders, led by Col. Mamady Doumbouya, had the full support of young people and appeared set to stay in power for a generation. Conde had manipulated his country’s constitution to run for a third term, a practice that has since been emulated by autocrats across Africa.
Obasanjo’s sobering submission is that Africa needs to rethink democracy because the liberal democracy copied from Western societies may not work for the continent. He acknowledged the challenges of power succession in Africa, given his own flirtation with extending his tenure beyond two terms.
The recent intervention in Gabon by President Paul Kagame of Rwanda and President Paul Biya of Cameroon suggests that leaders are taking steps to avoid similar scenarios. However, panic measures can only provide temporary stability in a continent already facing various challenges.
Africa is a place where former colonial masters still wield significant influence and authority in some cases, complicating the situation. However, Africans cannot afford to dwell on complaints and excuses. Leaders should engage in peer checks, which currently do not exist. Despite its limitations, true democracy remains the best option, and the African Union and regional groups must take proactive measures to prevent the resurgence of coups before it’s too late.