Public Policy Analysis Experts, NexTier SPD have advised Nigeria’s Federal Government to consider the Southeast to be a security flashpoint when planning for the 2023 presidential elections.
The group also stated that the contest for dominance and the existence of factions within the ranks of the Indigenous People of Biafra, or IPOB, could disrupt elections in the region.
After conducting extensive research, NexTier’s experts, Dr. Ben Nwosu and Dr. Ndu Nwokolo, wrote in a report: “The most potent sources of threat to the forthcoming presidential elections in 2023 are the existence of non-state armed groups across the country and the various interests they pursue.”
What the IPOB decides to do regarding the election is crucial to peace in the South East during this time. However, the organization has been fictionalized into groups that are at odds with one another. Their actions and disagreements pose a threat not only to their respective factions but also to the peace of the South East. Overall, these developments pose a threat to the February 2023 presidential election.
The group stated, “Like other troubled parts of the country, the South-East should be regarded as a security flashpoint in terms of election planning,” as pathways for peaceful presidential elections in the Southeast in 2023.
“It is obvious that non-state armed actors could disrupt the election. The competing drives of the various IPOB factions to establish their dominance in the region exacerbate this situation. Therefore, the following steps must be taken in order to plan for improved outcomes in the region’s subsequent presidential elections:
“In terms of the deployment of personnel and equipment, security deployments for the election ought to focus on the critical regions like the South East. But more importantly, intelligence gathering and its application should be prioritized in order to defuse potential security issues before they become significant hindrances to the elections.
“In order to prevent citizens from being deprived of their right to vote in the upcoming elections, civic education agencies like the National Orientation Agency and the political education arm of INEC should incorporate teaching communities the values of sharing security information with law enforcement agencies into their contents and strategies for the safe sharing of such information.
“Community leaders, particularly traditional rulers and President Generals of town union associations in the South East, should be included in the design of a special partnership program for clean elections by security agencies. One of the most effective grassroots mobilization platforms in the South East is the town union association. As a result, their leadership should always be incorporated into security partnerships.
“Mr. Simon Ekpa is the target of ongoing online petitions and litigation plans from various Nigerian Igbo groups in Nigeria and the Diaspora. This presents a chance for Nigerian security forces to take legal action against any and all groups that pose a security threat to the 2023 elections and beyond.
The researchers argued that nationwide, there are growing indications of significant threats to election security, primarily centered on the possibility of violence from various non-state actors and armed groups.
They stated, “For instance, the secessionist group that claims to be agitating for the sovereign state of Biafra is one of the major sources of electoral violence in the South East region of the country.” The Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) is the most assertive and well-known of these groups. The IPOB has split into factions, despite its importance in determining the peace and conflict in the South East. However, each faction continues to operate in the area, and security agencies have linked some violent attacks to them.
The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), an election management body, has been the target of several recent attacks. In Imo State, separatist agitators shot and killed an INEC employee who was participating in the voter registration process. In the South East, four arson attacks occurred within three weeks in November and December 2022, for which IPOB was also blamed by security agencies.
“However, IPOB denied responsibility for the attacks and claimed that security agencies orchestrated the incidents in order to discredit the organization. The identity of the IPOB faction responsible for the crime is unknown.
“On the 9th, 10th, 11th, 12th, and 14th of December 2022, a faction of IPOB based in Finland and led by Simon Ekpa declared a five-day mandatory sit-at-home period throughout the entire South East. The IPOB faction led by Nnamdi Kanu opposed and rejected the declaration in response.
The Nnamdi Kanu faction filed a lawsuit against Simon Ekpa for his violent activities and crimes against humanity in the south-east of Nigeria, which resulted in the deaths of three people and the destruction of property during the five-day sit-at-home in Enugu. As a result, concerns about the upcoming election are raised by the IPOB’s division into opposing factions and their struggle for dominance in the South East. As a result, the topic of this week’s Nextier SPD Policy Weekly is the impact of IPOB factionalization on the upcoming 2023 presidential elections.
Nextier said, “It is important to note that the very earliest formation of IPOB was not by Nnamdi Kanu,” but rather when it was under the leadership of the late Justice Eze Ozobu. He spoke about the factions and their implications for the elections in 2023. After that, Kanu made the announcement that the organization’s leadership had been fired, and he then registered IPOB in the UK.
“Kanu began a media broadcast style characterized by agitation and incendiary content after the organization was registered. People who share the perception that the Nigerian state, particularly the Igbo, is ethnically persecuting them resonated with his message. The IPOB that Kanu had registered became well-known as a result of this development.
“A disagreement over the method of running the association between Kanu and his deputy, Mr. Uche Mefor, led to the group’s division in 2020. Human rights and accountability issues were the two primary areas of disagreement. According to reports, Mefor opposed the IPOB’s violation of Igbo rights under the leadership of Kanu in terms of human rights.
“In terms of accountability, Mefor was said to have been expelled from IPOB when a faction of the UK chapter he led requested a financial statement. It was said that the demand caused Kanu to eliminate Mefor’s position as deputy leader. Mefor left the IPOB under the pressure of being kicked out and set up the Biafra Human Rights and Freedom Radio to advocate for the Ndi-Igbo rights that were being violated by the Kanu-led group. In March 2021, he joined the former Niger Delta militant Asari Dokubo to work on the Biafran project. They came together to form Dokubo’s Biafra Customary Government.
“The Biafran Freedom Awareness Channels, an internet broadcast media managed by Mr. Simon Ekpa, a self-proclaimed disciple of Nnamdi Kanu, is another pro-Biafran project that represents the second split in the IPOB. After Mr. Nnamdi Kanu’s arrest in June 2021, Mr. Ekpa came to the attention of the public.
“He was appointed to broadcast on Radio Biafra in July 2021 to fill the media void created by Kanu’s arrest. However, the appointment was short-lived because Mr. Ekpa was accused of not adhering to Radio Biafra’s operating guidelines. Mr. Ekpa continued to engage in social media posts about Biafra on behalf of IPOB despite the appointment’s termination. In addition, Mr. Ekpa’s fighter unit is known as the Autopilot, just like the IPOB group led by Kanu has an armed wing called the Eastern Security Network. The Kanu-led group began to counter the orders of the Ekpa group and deny IPOB’s connection with any directives of Ekpa, including the recent order for a five-day sit-at-home. This began after Ekpa stopped acting on behalf of IPOB in regards to media responsibilities and refused to conform to the group. Ekpa has been accused of terrorizing people in the South East by the Kanu group. Additionally, he is alleged to use Kanu’s IPOB’s name for his broadcasts and fundraising efforts.
“While another faction known as the DOS (Directorate of State) has also been linked to violence in the South East, the Kanu-led IPOB and Simon Ekpa Autopilot are the most prominent and active in terms of their impact on peace and security in the South East.
The major political factions’ actions or omissions will have a significant impact on the forthcoming elections’ security. Indeed, their perspectives on the election are quite divergent. The Kanu group stated that they have no plans to disrupt the elections in the South East despite not participating in them, despite Mr. Ekpa’s declaration that there would be no election in Biafraland (South East) after his declared five-day sit-at-home.
Outside of these IPOB factions, there are pockets of bandits operating in the South East who claim to be secessionists and carry out their evil deeds in the shadow of IPOB. During the elections, such groups are likely to become active.
“In a similar vein, political thugs who are typically hired by politicians would also like to be known as IPOB, possibly in order to profit from the ominous image of the secessionist group and easily frighten voters and peaceful citizens. Politicians who aren’t careful may use the thugs’ ability to prevent genuine voters from exercising their right to vote. In the end, the division within the IPOB makes the South East one of several security hotspots for the upcoming presidential election in 2023.